We’re hearing some excitement about the St Louis Cardinals’ prospects for the 2024 season. The MLB Redbirds finished with an uncharacteristic 71-91 in 2023.
If the optimism for 2024 is simply based on a bounceback from the worst season in a long time, we can understand that. There is a lot of luck involved in baseball, and 2023 could have been an aberration.
But if the 2024 excitement is based on roster changes, we’re not seeing what the optimists are seeing. All the same position players are basically in place. One possible replacement is Masyn Winn at shortstop. He hit .172 in his 122 MLB at bats. St Louis added Matt Carpenter and Brandon Crawford as backups to insert some maturity into a young roster. So, we’re not seeing a lot of changes in position players.
Let’s look at the pitching side where more changes are in store. Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz are the only starters returning. Starting pitchers with the most innings pitched last season who are gone are (with 2023 ERA):
Jordan Montgomery 3.20
Jack Flaherty 4.99
Dakota Hudson 4.98
Adam Wainwright 7.40
AVG 5.14
As of now, the replacements appear to be:
Sonny Gray 2.79
Kyle Gibson 4.73
Lance Lynn 5.73
AVG 4.42
So, there is a decent reduction in ERA. There is more to pitching than ERA, but we’re still not seeing reasons for massive improvement. The bullpen still has Helsley, Liberatore, Pallante, and Gallegos.
In summary, we wish the Cardinals well. Improvement from 71 wins may come from 2023 being statistical oddity. That seems plausible, especially given their lineup. You could also make the case that the Cardinals have a lot of young players, most of whom will have a better year in 2024. That’s also plausible. But, based solely on the facts, we’re not seeing what a big increase over 71 wins is based on.
Bad Beat Benny
