An amazing start for our top handicapper! 6 straight wins. His notes in italics below.
Tell me how a team that has lost 7/8 games has confidence to,just blow out a decent team? Add to that after they had 5 days rest to,play an awful Illinois team …then went out and basically laid an egg? Toughness to me and grit are what make some Dog plays more appealing . 7.5 pts is a lot of chicken on the bone to give an Owls team that plays every possession like it’s their last. Yes Iowa on Paper looks ohhhh so much better. It’s hard to imagine them not blowing this average Temple team out. This is what makes Temple attractive here. They won’t turn the ball over so you can’t get xtra possessions on them. They don’t foul so you won’t get xtra points on them. Plus they rebound well so you have to hit a lot of your shots or,you will be one and done. They have veterans so they won’t choke to the pressure. Finally Temple is 7-3 L10 and 4-1 L5 games while Iowa is 4-6 L10 and 1-4L5…4 STARS temple +7.5
John Fisher Las Vegas, Nevada
WINNER TEMPLE+7.5….Just too much chicken on the bone to go against Temple…teams too even…Iowa 72-70 OT
Line has moved up a little as the public is hitting VCU . I like VCU here because they can create more shot opportunities with their press and dribble drive penetration. The Beavers have a decent team led by G Payton Jr who can do almost anything. However, if you watched yesterday’s action you can see that the Pac 12 the Conference of Champions struggle a little with the exception of UTah. C Mo Alie Cox , Lewis, and Johnson make for a formidable combination for the VCU Rams. Look for G Melvin Johnson to hit 5 threes this game. The Beavers have struggled with athletic teams that have pace this year. This will another game with athletic players and pace for VCU.
Guarantee goes later today
WINNER-VCU-4…Mo Alie-Cox just too much. VCU 75-67.
There is a lot of talk about if these SFA Lumberjacks… are they for real? And look who,they have played? teams that no one can pronounce. Incarnate Word and Houston Baptist are not Oklahoma and Kansas by any means, teams West Virginia faced. But look at point differential..it would be one thing if the Lumberjacks won their 20 straight by single digits versus those teams in conference. But they have been winning by an average of 20 pts. Both these teams press and play similar style and pace. I have looked at a lot of tape of these Lumberjacks and they are down right for real…yes the competition is not tough but they can shoot from outside. Biggest issue for the Lumberjacks is size. They will be dominated by Willams, Holton, and Macon inside. I’m going to parlay this game and go with the Lumberjacks and the over. Will also do small plays with 3 stars Jacks and 5 star over. If,this game gets ugly for West Virginia I believe the over is a safe play because I just don’t see this game having many half court sets. Fouls will be plenty stopping the clock and getting a lot of free points. SFA +8 3 stars OVER 145 5 Stars
WINNER…SFA +8..loss over 145…..SFA 70-56…SFA actually outplayed the Mountaineers at their own game. What a great tournament…you have walk ons outplaying 4 and 5 stars throughout this tournament ….Walkup ran it up and owned the Mountaineers…33 pts 9 rebounds…
My final play of the day. This is my 7th play which is 2 to 4 more then the norm but bankroll is good and it’s time to have fun.mhope you will agree. Again I look at pace and possessions. I’m not concerned about Coach Smart putting pressure and using their bench against the Panthers. Northern Iowa has beaten good defensive teams with deep benches before…see Wichita State (twice). They methodical carve your defense with Pg Washpun then set you up with sharp shooters Jesperson and Morgan. Texas will counter with PG Taylor who is also a master penetrator. Problem for Texas is they are not good shooters. G FELIX has shown signs of flashes but is never consistent. Texas bigs will have an advantage but N. Iowas plays great help,defense. I will take the points in a limited possession game.
Niowa +4.5 4 stars
N. Iowa 75-72 at the buzzer….INCREDIBLE HALF COURT SHOT…IT WAS JUST OUT NIGHT…BEARCATS ONE TOUGH TEAM….but PANTHERS and DOGS RULED THE DAY
These two teams have a lot of offensive fire power and play very similar spread offenses. Yes, both play the shot clock which is why total is below 150. Public is all over the OVER and for good reason. Their will be 7 players in the floor that have taken over 100 3s this year. Wolverines rely on the three a lot more then most teams which makes them vulnerable to being blown out. Notre Dame relies on the penetration first then kick outs for threes if it’s open. In the end I will take the Irish ability to get to the basket and Zachery Auguste as the main factors to move on. 4 stars Irish -2.5
WINNER …NOTRE DAME 70-63 …A 41-22 second half performance propels the Irish over the Wolverines.