March Madness & Grok Picks, March 24th – 30th, 2025

The 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament is currently in the second week. The first round (Round of 64) took place on March 20–21, and the second round (Round of 32) occurred on March 22–23. This week, we’re looking at the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds, which determine the teams advancing to the Final Four.

Sweet 16 (March 27–28, 2025)

The Sweet 16 games are scheduled for Thursday, March 27, and Friday, March 28. Based on available information, the matchups and times are as follows:

Thursday, March 27 (Sweet 16, Day 1):

• 7:09 PM EDT: No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama (CBS) – Newark, NJ (East Regional)
• 7:39 PM EDT: No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 1 Florida (TBS) – San Francisco, CA (West Regional)
• 9:39 PM EDT: No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 1 Duke (CBS) – Newark, NJ (East Regional)
• 10:09 PM EDT: No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (TBS) – San Francisco, CA (West Regional)

Friday, March 28 (Sweet 16, Day 2):

• 7:09 PM EDT: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State (CBS) – Atlanta, GA (South Regional)
• 7:39 PM EDT: No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee (TBS) – Indianapolis, IN (Midwest Regional)
• 9:39 PM EDT: No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 1 Auburn (CBS) – Atlanta, GA (South Regional)
• 10:09 PM EDT: No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston (TBS) – Indianapolis, IN (Midwest Regional)

Elite Eight (March 29–30, 2025)

The Elite Eight games follow the Sweet 16, with winners advancing to the Final Four. These games are scheduled for Saturday, March 29, and Sunday, March 30. The exact matchups depend on the Sweet 16 results, but the schedule is:

Saturday, March 29 (Elite Eight, Day 1):

• 6:09 PM EDT: East Regional Final (TBS) – Newark, NJ
• 8:49 PM EDT: West Regional Final (TBS) – San Francisco, CA

Sunday, March 30 (Elite Eight, Day 2):

• 2:20 PM EDT: South Regional Final (CBS) – Atlanta, GA
• 5:05 PM EDT: Midwest Regional Final (CBS) – Indianapolis, IN

Since the Elite Eight matchups depend on the Sweet 16 outcomes, I’ll focus my winner picks on the Sweet 16 games, as those are the confirmed games for this week. I can provide hypothetical Elite Eight picks afterward if you’d like!

My Picks for the Sweet 16 Games

Now, let’s get to my predictions for the Sweet 16 games. I’ll base my picks on team performance, seeding, and recent tournament results, while also considering historical trends and potential for upsets. March Madness is known for surprises, so I’ll factor that in as well.

Thursday, March 27 Games

1. No. 6 BYU vs. No. 2 Alabama (East Regional)
   • Analysis: BYU has already shown resilience by beating VCU in the first round and likely another tough opponent in the second round to reach the Sweet 16. They’re known for a high-powered offense, ranking among the best in the country over the past month. Alabama, as a No. 2 seed, is a strong SEC team with a balanced attack, likely led by a deep roster and solid defense. However, Alabama has had inconsistent moments this season, and BYU’s offensive firepower could exploit that.
   • Pick: I’m going with the upset here—BYU. Their offensive efficiency and ability to shoot from deep give them an edge in a high-scoring game.
2. No. 4 Maryland vs. No. 1 Florida (West Regional)
   • Analysis: Florida, a No. 1 seed, ended UConn’s three-peat hopes in the second round with a 77-75 thriller, showcasing their depth and offensive efficiency (ranked No. 1 in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom). They also have a top-10 defense and a star guard in Walter Clayton Jr. Maryland pulled off a buzzer-beater to beat No. 12 Colorado State in the second round, showing they can handle pressure. However, Florida’s overall balance and experience make them the favorite.
   • Pick: Florida. They’re too complete a team, and their defensive depth should handle Maryland’s attack.
3. No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 1 Duke (East Regional)
   • Analysis: Arizona, behind Caleb Love’s 29 points, beat Oregon 87-83 in the second round, erasing a double-digit deficit. Love has a history with Duke, having played them multiple times at North Carolina. Duke, the No. 1 seed in the East, dominated Baylor 89-66 in the second round, with a decisive 12-0 run in the first half. Duke’s projected No. 1 NBA Draft pick, Cooper Flagg, is back from an ankle injury and playing at a high level. This game will be close, but Duke’s talent and depth give them the edge.
   • Pick: Duke. Their size, athleticism, and Flagg’s impact should overpower Arizona, though Love will keep it competitive.
4. No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech (West Regional)
   • Analysis: Arkansas, coached by John Calipari, upset No. 2 St. John’s in the second round (75-66), showing they can handle elite competition. Texas Tech, a No. 3 seed, likely advanced past a tough opponent like Drake to reach this point. Texas Tech has key players like Darrion Williams and Chance McMillian back from injury, making them a balanced squad. Arkansas’s experience under Calipari and their ability to pull off upsets make them dangerous, but Texas Tech’s consistency might prevail.
   • Pick: Texas Tech. They’re the higher seed and have been more consistent, though Arkansas could make it a close game.

Friday, March 28 Games

5. No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State (South Regional)
   • Analysis: Ole Miss has made a surprising run to the Sweet 16 as a No. 6 seed, likely beating a higher-seeded team in the second round. Michigan State, under Tom Izzo, is a perennial tournament threat, with one of the top-five defenses in the country. They’re not great offensively (30.2% from three), but their defensive grit and Izzo’s March experience are hard to beat. Ole Miss will need to shoot lights out to win.
   • Pick: Michigan State. Their defense should stifle Ole Miss, and Izzo’s track record in March gives them the edge.
6. No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee (Midwest Regional)
   • Analysis: Kentucky, a No. 3 seed, beat No. 6 Illinois 84-75 in the second round, reaching the Sweet 16 for the first time in six years under coach Mark Pope. Tennessee, a No. 2 seed, is a strong SEC team with a stout defense and efficient offense. This SEC matchup will be a battle, but Kentucky’s momentum and ability to gel as a team late in the season give them a slight edge.
   • Pick: Kentucky. They’re playing with confidence, and their talent is starting to click at the right time.
7. No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 1 Auburn (South Regional)
   • Analysis: Michigan upset No. 4 Texas A&M in the second round, showing they can compete with top teams. Auburn, the No. 1 overall seed, blew out Creighton in the second half of their second-round game after a slow start. Auburn has been the favorite to win the tournament all season, with a balanced roster and depth. Michigan will need a near-perfect game to pull off the upset.
   • Pick: Auburn. They’re too strong and have the depth to handle Michigan’s challenge.
8. No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston (Midwest Regional)
   • Analysis: Purdue, a No. 4 seed, beat McNeese in the second round and has Final Four experience from last year. Houston, a No. 1 seed, fended off Gonzaga in the second round and is 7-0 in the second round under coach Kelvin Sampson. Houston’s defense is elite, and their fast starts (like against Gonzaga) can bury teams early. Purdue’s size and experience make this close, but Houston’s consistency wins out.
   • Pick: Houston. Their defensive intensity and tournament pedigree should carry them through.

Summary of My Sweet 16 Picks

• Thursday, March 27: BYU, Florida, Duke, Texas Tech
• Friday, March 28: Michigan State, Kentucky, Auburn, Houston

Hypothetical Elite Eight Picks (March 29–30, 2025)

Based on my Sweet 16 picks, here’s how the Elite Eight might look, along with my predicted winners:

Saturday, March 29:

• East Regional Final (Newark, NJ): BYU vs. Duke
  • Pick: Duke. BYU’s run is impressive, but Duke’s talent and depth will be too much.
• West Regional Final (San Francisco, CA): Florida vs. Texas Tech Pick: Florida. Their offensive and defensive balance gives them the edge in a close game.

Sunday, March 30:

• South Regional Final (Atlanta, GA): Michigan State vs. Auburn
  • Pick: Auburn. Their depth and consistency should overpower Michigan State’s defense.
• Midwest Regional Final (Indianapolis, IN): Kentucky vs. Houston
  • Pick: Houston. Their experience and defensive intensity will be the difference.

Final Four Projection (April 5, 2025)

Based on my picks, the Final Four would be:

• Duke (East)
• Florida (West)
• Auburn (South)
• Houston (Midwest)